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May 17, 2012

EaP summit in Warsaw - fears and hopes

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2011-09-26

The Eastern Partnership Summit was held in Warsaw on 29 and 30 September. The conference will host the heads of states and governments of EU countries and the Eastern Partnership countries. An assessment of the achievements to date, and the increase of EU commitment to its Eastern partners will be the main official aim of the summit. Still, it is bound to be overshadowed by the recent events in Ukraine, where former PM Yulia Tymoshenko was arrested. Thus, hopes of finalizing talks with Ukraine on an association agreement, which would include a far-reaching trade deal, have receded in recent months. Even if an agreement were concluded to its ratification, there would be objections from several EU member states over Ukraine's backsliding on democracy and rule of law under President Viktor Yanukovych. Earlier this month, France even demanded the suspension of negotiations with Ukraine. We asked several experts and a politician for their opinions regarding the probable outcome of the summit.

Alexander Rahr: this is not the time of the masters of diplomacy
Alexander Rahr
2011-09-26
Polish diplomacy has set itself a very ambitious target. It wants to get the European Union interested in the East and to encourage it to become engaged in the Eastern Partnership. Unfortunately Europe currently finds itself at such a turning point in history the elaborate diplomatic games played with the representatives of certain states have no chance at success. To put it bluntly: might is right. Within the European Neighbourhood Policy the attention of France and Italy is rapt on the countries of North Africa. Berlin is also looking in that direction.
Sergey Markov: Ukraine is between the hammer and the anvil
Sergey Markov
2011-09-26
We should not expect the Eastern Partnership summit to bring about a breakthrough or to set the integration processes on the fast track. We are up against a situation where there is clear opposition coming from important European diplomats regarding Kyiv’s use of the penal code for its political goals. And we’re not talking about only one incident. In fact for Brussels, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko – now behind bars – is the litmus test for the maturity of democratic structures in Ukraine. There is a non-stop process of political clashes supported by the courts in Ukraine.
Andras Deak: EaP summit doomed to failure
Andras Deak
2011-09-26
The Eastern Partnership is rather unlikely to be tagged “successful”. This is why Poland should look the truth straight in the eye and focus on minimising the negative effects of a possible and entirely probable failure.
Andriy Doroshenko: The French are playing for Russia
Andriy Doroshenko
2011-09-26
The Eastern Partnership summit will be a success for Warsaw in spite of all the inconveniences and friction which have arisen in connection with former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. This is down to the fact that Polish diplomacy has taken a very rational stance by making efforts to find a formula for action which will be satisfactory for both Kyiv and Brussels. I am convinced that this attitude will lead to an Association Agreement being signed along with an agreement on a free trade area with Ukraine before the end of this year. It’s entirely likely that an agreement will be on the table in November. Representatives of the European Commission have after all clearly stated that the negotiation process with Kyiv is entering its final stages.

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